How Are the Cubs 7-2?
Entering play on Sunday, the Chicago Cubs bullpen boasted a 9.64 ERA. Over the course of the first eight games, Chicago relief pitching combined to throw 18 2/3 innings, allowing a staggering 20 walks, 18 hits, and ten home runs. That’s, um, really bad.
[To their credit, the bullpen did put together five crucial scoreless innings in Sunday’s 2-1 extra-innings victory, which completed a three-game sweep of the lowly Pirates.]
In addition to the collective failures of the unit, one particularly high profile name has caused anxiety attacks across the Northside of Chicago (Welcome back to sports!).
Craig Kimbrel, the team’s $43 million closer with an eye-popping resume, currently holds a 27.00 ERA and 4.500 WHIP. Yes, he has only pitched twice (1.1 IP), but his performances were so poor that Cubs manager David Ross didn’t even attempt to deny assumptions that the closer role is up for grabs.
“That’s a good question,” Ross replied when asked if he was considering a shake-up at the back of the bullpen. “I appreciate you asking that. I’m not sure on that. I’ll get back to you on that. … I’m in the middle of conversations with Craig. We’ll have those with him first.”
A closer controversy and a 9.64 bullpen ERA? Sounds like a team on the brink of utter collapse, right? But that’s the thing with this mystery of a Cubs team; right now they sit at 7-2, good for the best record in the National League. How can that be?
To get a better picture of how poorly Kimbrel’s two appearances have gone, I’m simply going to type out the outcomes:
July 27th(Kimbrel enters the 9th with an 8-5 lead):Walk, Wild Pitch, Ground Out, Walk, Steal, Walk, HBP (8-6), Walk (8-7).Jeremy Jeffress would then enter the game and record the final 2 outs with the bases loaded for a nailbiting Cubs victory.
Craig Kimbrel walks Tyler Stephenson with the bases loaded!Kimbrel gets pulled by David Ross with 34 pitches after getting just one out and allowing two runs. He has left the bases loadedpic.twitter.com/sISisFou4s— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_)July 28, 2020
Craig Kimbrel walks Tyler Stephenson with the bases loaded!Kimbrel gets pulled by David Ross with 34 pitches after getting just one out and allowing two runs. He has left the bases loadedpic.twitter.com/sISisFou4s
July 31st(Kimbrel enters the 9th with a 6-1 lead):Home Run (6-2), Home Run (6-3), Ground Out, Line Out, Ground Out.Cubs win 6-3.
Craig Kimbrel allows back to back home runs… Again 🤦♂️pic.twitter.com/DfrK2zL0P2— Hayato 🤨💭 (@realRedSox)August 1, 2020
Craig Kimbrel allows back to back home runs… Again 🤦♂️pic.twitter.com/DfrK2zL0P2
Notice a pattern? Despite Kimbrel struggling mightily, the Cubs won both games. This trend extends beyond the failings of one man.
On July 28th, Cubs reliever Ryan Tepera entered in the ninth inning against the Reds. After quickly collecting two strikeouts, Tepera walked Aristides Aquino before giving up a two-run homer to Freddy Galvis.
The good news? That only made it 8-5, with the Cubs still holding a three-run lead. Tepera finished what he started by striking out Curt Casali and Chicago walked away with a win.
So, what exactly has allowed this team to thrive despite bullpen collapse after bullpen collapse?
Dominant Starting Pitching, From Unexpected Places
Shortly before the 2020 season started,Cubs starterJosé Quintana was washing dishes. Suddenly, a glass the southpaw was holding burst into pieces, creating a deep gash in his left thumb.The incident required surgery and knocked Quintana out of the rotation for an unspecified period of time (He has returned to throwing but when he will pitch in a big league game is still unknown).
As Cubs fans gearing up for the season went to double check the rotation, a groan seemed like the appropriate response.
Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood, Alec Mills
While Kyle Hendricks has been a consistent staple for Chicago, the other names all have cause for concern. Yu Darvish has been an up and down roller coaster since the 2017 World Series when the (cheating) Astros lit him up. Yu’s plethora of pitches and career resume are inspiring, but his 4.95 and 3.98 ERA in 2018 and 2019 are not exactly what the team was hoping for when they handed over $126 million.
Jon Lester will always be a Cubs legend due to the perfect timing of his 2015 signing, allowing him to help mature the young core into World Series Champions in 2016. Fast forward to 2020 and things are slightly different.
While still a hardened veteran any fan would want on their team, he is not the dominant ace he once was. In 2019, his ERA ballooned to 4.46, a high he hadn’t hit since his age 22 and 23 seasons in 2006 and 2007. At age 36, there is legitimate concern about how long a guy with a 90 MPH fastball (Kyle Hendricks doesn’t count he’s a freak) can continue to get it done in the big leagues.
Then we turn to the back of the rotation, where things really get interesting. Tyler Chatwood joined the Cubs in 2018 and since that day he never threw a strike again. Ok, that’s not true but at times it certainly felt like it.
In his first season with the team he walked an astounding 95 batters in 103.2 IP. He also had a 5.30 ERA. Clearly, things didn’t go well. His 2019 season was slightly better, but Cubs fans still cringed at the name Chatwood.
Someone actually spent the time required to make this video, so I had to include it.
Meanwhile, Alec Mills is basically a complete unknown who had only appeared in 16 games (54 IP) leading up to the 2020 season.
To most observers, the rotation was a clear question mark.
Then the season actually started and these guys started shoving. Hendricks dazzled on Opening Day with a complete game shutout and through nine games the rotation has turned in six quality starts (which doesn’t include Lester’s first game when he had a no-hitter through 5 IP and was taken out).
Tyler Chatwood has taken on an entirely new form and is freezing hitters with a filthy cutter and sinker combo. Right now, he is 2-0, has only walked four batters, and has 19 K’s through 12 2/3 IP. Watching his starts has truly been a cleaning experience for all who once cursed his name (Sorry, Tyler).
Ask us how Tyler Chatwood is looking.pic.twitter.com/c43n0p4Cob— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs)August 2, 2020
Ask us how Tyler Chatwood is looking.pic.twitter.com/c43n0p4Cob
Even Alec Mills started the year off on a high note by completing 6 innings and only giving up 2 runs in a victory over the Reds.
Cubs starters have only performed poorly in two games: when Hendricks gave up 6 runs in 4.1 IP against the Reds and when Darvish gave up 3 runs in 4 IP. Chicago dropped both contests, their only losses of the season to this point. To say the rotation has been carrying the load would be a vast understatement.
An Offensive Resurgence
In the Cubs 2016 World Series campaign the explosive offense averaged 4.93 runs per game, good enough for third best in the league. The following year the team dropped to ninth in that category. 2018 saw more decline as the Cubs posted 4.65 runs per game (10th in the league, where they stayed for the 2019 season).
Obviously, the sample size is small but through nine games in 2020 the Cubs offense has averaged 5.56 runs per game.
Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Javy Baez, and Willson Contreras have found their swings early. This has helped create cushions for a bullpen in desperate need of them.
Looking at the game logs, there have already been multiple occasions in which the offense wasjustenough to mask horrible relief pitching; an 8-7 final on July 27th, an 8-5 final on the 28th, and a 4-3 final on August 1st. With an average of 1.67 home runs per game, the offense is allowing this team to thrive while deeper failures lie below the win-loss column.
Javy swinging out of his shoes is always a good time.#WhereStoriesPlaypic.twitter.com/l8YyohIgIP— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs)August 2, 2020
Javy swinging out of his shoes is always a good time.#WhereStoriesPlaypic.twitter.com/l8YyohIgIP
The defense has also been pretty reliable, with only 5 errors to this point. Not giving up runs on mistakes will be important if the Cubs want to continue to makeup for their shakey bullpen.
Here’s Kyle Schwarber with a message to all the haters who said he should DH this entire season:
A cannon and a brick wall.pic.twitter.com/VGaO5uAJ1M— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs)August 3, 2020
A cannon and a brick wall.pic.twitter.com/VGaO5uAJ1M
Is It Sustainable?
Honestly, probably not. If the bullpen continues to bethisbad, the Cubs are in for a rude awakening when the competition gets tougher and the games more important. But, it seems almost impossible for things to keep going on this trajectory. While it will never be a strong suit for the 2020 Cubs, the relievers should eventually fall into some sort of rhythm and find more success than a 9.64 ERA.
If the offense, defense, and starting pitching can continue at this pace (and remember it’s only a 60 game season), the bullpen finding some sort of middle ground will propel the team to even more success.
Most likely, all facets of the Cubs will find their middle ground. The starting pitching won’t continue to bethisgood, the relievers won’t suckthatmuch, and the team will find their place as an above average roster that can’t stack up with the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers.
But who knows? Maybe the bullpen will continue to fail in epic fashion as the Cubs cruise to a 58-2 record.
Whatever happens, this team has been fascinating to watch early in the season and I don’t plan on stopping anytime soon.