Redeeming Gary Sánchez

Redeeming Gary Sánchez

Here’s a ridiculous sentence: “The Yankees decided to keep Gary Sánchez.” But is it ridiculous because they let him stick around after batting .147, or because he’s one of the top slugging catchers in the game? That depends on your perspective.

At the non-tender deadline two weeks ago,they offered him a contractrather than cut him loose. This decision was both mildly surprising and a complete no-brainer depending on your camera lens. Zoom out, and he’s the most prolifically powerful catcher in MLB history. From ages 23-27, only four backstops produced more home runs than his 115, all of whom are Hall of Famers: Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza, Yogi Berra, and Gary Carter. He averages a bomb every 15.3 plate appearances for his career, easily beating Piazza’s catcher record of going deep every 18.1 trips to the plate.Of course,any team would keep this one-of-a-kind talent!

If you zoom in on his recent performance, things become more complicated. While he did hit ten homers in the shortened 2020 season, they were accompanied by a .147 batting average and 64 strikeouts in 178 plate appearances. He produced only nine singles and four doubles in 49 games, eventually losing his starting job in the postseason. He was inarguably among the worst hitters in baseball in 2020.

Sánchez remains under team control for the next two seasons, should they be inclined to keep him. His prodigious power and hot-and-cold bat make him one of the most unique, enigmatic players in the game. What went right and wrong in 2020, and where does that position him for 2021?

Still Crushing

Sánchez still possesses unprecedented power for his position. Even in the midst of his mightiest struggles, his home run power never wavered. His ten bombs last year trailed only Salvador Perez and J.T. Realmuto (11 each) for the most by any catcher. Batted ball evidence supports this conclusion as well. His 17.4 percent barrel rate and 117.5 mph max exit velocity paced all MLB catchers, while his 50 percent hard-hit rate was tied for fourth.

The Statcast metrics above indicate that on the too-rare occasions he managed to put the ball in play, he appeared to mash as well as ever. Yet his batting average on balls in play was a paltry .159. That doesn’t mesh at all with someone hitting the ball as hard as he does. This suggests an element of bad luck. Leaguewide, batted balls with 62-95 mph exit velocity should have anexpected batting average of about .250. He hit 40 balls in play in this exit velo range, but only four of them turned into hits.

Here are a few possible explanations:

• Almost all of them were grounders or popups. Only four of these medium contact hits had a launch angle between 19 and 34 degrees, one of which was the double to right field.

Almost all of them were grounders or popups. Only four of these medium contact hits had a launch angle between 19 and 34 degrees, one of which was the double to right field.

• He chopped 16 grounders with less than a 15-degree launch angle. Six went straight to the shortstop, eight were directed towards the third baseman, one squibbed towards first, and one squeaked down the third baseline for a single. If you look at the chart above, there’s a mysterious void between third base and shortstop where there were no batted balls. This is especially unlucky because that’s where the base hits are! He somehow completely avoided the gap in the left side of the infield.

He chopped 16 grounders with less than a 15-degree launch angle. Six went straight to the shortstop, eight were directed towards the third baseman, one squibbed towards first, and one squeaked down the third baseline for a single. If you look at the chart above, there’s a mysterious void between third base and shortstop where there were no batted balls. This is especially unlucky because that’s where the base hits are! He somehow completely avoided the gap in the left side of the infield.

• He runs like a catcher and won’t beat out too many grounders.

He runs like a catcher and won’t beat out too many grounders.

As unsightly as his .147 batting average seems, he deserved better based on his batted ball profile. He hit the ball hard as frequently as any catcher in the game and got robbed on a lot of medium contact. Of course, this is all predicated on him actually connecting with the pitch…

Swinging-And-Missing

Here’s where things get ugly. Sánchez made contact with baseballs about as often as NASA does with extraterrestrials. His 36 percent strikeout rate was sixth-worst in MLB last year (minimum 150 plate appearances), whereas his previous career-worst had been 28 percent. He posted 68.4 percent contact and 13.8 swinging strike rates— easily the worst marks of his career.

The biggest culprit appeared to be fastballs. He saw 69 heaters in the strike zone last season of at least 94 mph. He swung and missed at 18 of them (26 percent). He swung at a total of 66 fastballs > 94 mph and failed to connect 30 times. That’s an insane 45 percent whiff rate on pitches he expected to hit!

Given the trends in today’s game with more pitchers throwing harder all the time, this is a particularly dangerous problem. The Yankees’ biggest divisional rival these days is the Tampa Bay Rays, who won the AL East by seven games. As a staff, their average fastball velocity was 94.4 mph— well above Sánchez’s comfort zone. Perhaps that’s why he went 3-24 against them this year with 11 strikeouts.

It’s important to note that Sánchez managed to maintain his patience throughout this mess of a season. He collected 18 walks and four hit-by-pitches, elevating his on-base percentage 106 points above his batting average. Nevertheless, free passes with the occasional home run can’t save his batting profile. He’s going to need to figure out how to handle the heat. Presumably,this has been the focus of his intensive workouts ever since the season ended.

Going Streaking

Playing for Los Toros del Este in his native Dominican Republic this winter, Sánchez has slashed .318/.483/.682 through seven games and his 1.165 OPS leads the league. The is a highly competitive league featuring mostly players with MLB experience that skews heavily towards pitching— the league average runs per game is just 3.61. In other words, Sánchez has been the best player on his team so far and a leading MVP candidate.

He’s always been a streaky hitter since he first arrived in the big leagues. He finished second in the 2016 Rookie of the Year voting with a torrid two months, slashing .299/.376/.657 with 20 home runs. That was a high note no one could sustain. The other side of that coin is his 2020 season— also a roughly two-month sample. When he’s hot, he’s scalding, but when he’s cold, he’s frigid.

Over the course of a normal 162-game season, Sánchez has time to balance out the hot with the cold. In a shortened season, he didn’t get the chance to heat up again— and he’s taking revenge right now in the Dominican Republic. If he found a way to fix his swing and catch up o velocity, he should re-stake his claim as one of the premier slugging catchers in the world next season.