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Eight Spring Training Extension Candidates

Eight Spring Training Extension Candidates

As I sat down to write this article about extensions on Sunday morning, an MLB Trade Rumors notification popped up on my phone. “Royals, Hunter Dozier Finalizing Four-Year Extension.” ‘Tis the season for negotiations, as teams and players are often reticent to talk about these kinds of deals once the regular season begins.

The Dozier agreement eats up his two remaining arbitration years as well as one year of would-be free agency with a club option for a second. Not to downplay the importance of this contract for Dozier and the Royals, but there probably wasn’t much external pressure to get a deal done since he still had a few more years of team control anyway. The compulsion ramps up this spring for a handful of young stars primed to hit the open market following the 2021 season. The clock is ticking for the following players to lengthen their stays with their current clubs (presented alphabetically). Yes, a lot of them are Mets, and no, they probably won’t extend all of them. That makes this Spring Training exponentially important in Port St. Lucie.

Michael Conforto, New York Mets Outfielder

Michael Conforto is a prime example of why batting average doesn’t tell the full story. Even though he hit .322 in 2020, his career mark is .259. However, with a 12.1 percent walk rate, his career on-base percentage is 99 points higher. He also compiled 88 home runs from 2017-2019 with another nine dingers in 54 games last year. He’s statistically similar to George Springer, who just signed a six-year, $150 million contract with the Blue Jays, and while Conforto isn’t as qualified to patrol center field, he’ll be a year-and-a-half younger when (if) he hits the open market.

Carlos Correa, Houston Astros Shortstop

Carlos Correa, the first overall pick in the 2012 draft, debuted for the Astros at age 20. He will be only 27 this coming winter, which would make him a highly desirable free agent. In spite of the cheating scandal and his uncharacteristically reduced power output last season, he remains one of the most important players in the middle of the Houston lineup. Since 2015, he’s fourth in fWAR among all shortstops, trailing only Francisco Lindor (see below), Xander Bogaerts, and Corey Seager (also below).

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves First Baseman

Reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman has already spent twice as much time with his current club as any other player on this list. He debuted with the Braves in 2010 while Carlos Correa was a high school sophomore. Prior to the 2014 season, he signed an eight-year, $135 million extension which concludes after 2021. He owns a career .295/.383/.509 slash line, putting him on a Hall of Fame career arc. He’s also shown superb durability, playing every single game in 2014, 2018, and 2020. Approaching age 32, he’ll look for one more long-term contract from Atlanta. After all, the first one couldn’t have worked out any better.

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets Shortstop

Mike Trout and Mookie Betts are the consensus top two players in baseball. Francisco Lindor has an excellent case to be ranked number three. In fact, his 29.2 fWAR since 2015 is the third-most in MLB. In the most high-profile trade of the winter (aside from possibly Nolan Arenado), the Mets acquired the 27-year-old superstar from Cleveland with a year remaining on his contract.His futureisthe talkofMetscampalready. If the club is serious about building a perennial winner, it would seem folly to acquire the best shortstop in baseball only to let him slip away, regardless of their myriad other extension candidates.

Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers Shortstop

Despite his recent NLCS and World Series MVP honors, we probably don’t appreciate how much of a unicorn Corey Seager is. Here are the all-time career OPS+ leaders for left-handed hitting shortstops:

Arky Vaughan, 136 (old-timey Hall of Famer)

Corey Seager, 127

(huge gap, followed by 1800s rando) Jack Rowe, 115

Charlie Hollocher, 110 (Deadball Era dude)

The closest modern competition is Didi Gregorius, whose perfectly average 100 OPS+ is miles south Seager’s. After Tommy John surgery set him back a few years ago, he reasserted himself as one of baseball’s best and brightest by hitting .307/.358/.585 in the regular season, then stealing the show in October. The soon-to-be 27-year-old is arguably the most important player in a lineup that includes former MVPs Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts.

Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies Shortstop

HAHAHAHAHA right, like Trevor Story would sign an extension with Coloradoafter the way they treated Nolan Arenado! They may as well trade him at this point and get something in return before he reaches free agency. What a mess this franchise has become. He averages 36 home runs over 162 games for his career and just led the NL with 15 stolen bases last season. His extension talks are likely to commence with a new team if and when he gets traded.

Marcus Stroman, New York Mets Starting Pitcher

Back to the Mets! MLB’s service time rules are structured to abet teams to manipulate players’ service time, but Marcus Stroman is the rare case of the tail wagging the dog. He sat on the IL with an injury just long enough to accrue service time to ensure free agency in 2020, then opted out of the rest of the season. All’s well that ends well though, as he accepted the Mets’ one-year qualifying offer. He’s been a reliable mid-rotation starter for his whole career— most of which he spent in Toronto— who turns 30 on May 1. The Mets can’t make him a qualifying offer a second time, so they’ll have to pony up the cash if they want to keep him in Queens.

Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets Starting Pitcher

An extension for Noah Syndergaard is a little more complicated than the other Mets listed above. 2020 Spring Training lasted just long enough for Thor to tear his UCL, requiring Tommy John surgery. He’s not expected back until sometime around June of this year. When healthy, he compiled 775 strikeouts and just 63 home runs allowed in 716 innings with an average fastball velocity of 98.2 mph. He’ll be only 29 years old this offseason. If the Mets are comfortable with his elbow’s recovery, they should look into locking him up long term.

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